The UN Pact for the Future: Context, Timeline and Realistic Assessment

Introduction to the Pact for the Future

The "Pact for the Future" represents a landmark agreement adopted by world leaders at the United Nations Summit of the Future held on September 22, 2024. This pivotal document was developed as a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reimagine the multilateral system and steer humanity on a new course to meet existing commitments and address long-term challenges. The Pact covers a broad range of themes, including peace and security, sustainable development, climate change, digital cooperation, human rights, gender, youth and future generations, and the transformation of global governance. It was adopted by consensus, though a small group of seven countries held out after failing to pass a last-minute amendment.

Background and Development of the Pact

The Pact for the Future emerged from a years-long process aimed at adapting international cooperation to contemporary realities and future challenges. It can be traced back to UN Secretary-General António Guterres's "Our Common Agenda" report published in September 2021, which was his response to a call from Member States for ideas on better addressing current and future challenges. This report proposed the Summit of the Future as a "once-in-a-generation opportunity to reinvigorate global action, recommit to fundamental principles, and further develop the frameworks of multilateralism".

Prior to the summit, intense negotiations took place with contentious discussions over key issues in the proposed summit outcome document. The Pact encountered significant resistance due to tensions between wealthy nations that have long been "makers" of world order and developing nations seeking a more egalitarian multilateral system that enhances their voice, power, and interests. These competing visions made negotiations particularly difficult, with wealthy members of developed countries hesitant to discuss specifics of international financial architecture reform in the General Assembly and Global South countries demanding more concrete commitments.

Components and Objectives of the Pact for the Future

The Pact for the Future consists of 56 actions and includes two key annexes: the Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. The Global Digital Compact represents the first comprehensive global framework for digital cooperation and AI governance, including commitments to connect all people to the internet, make the online space safe, and govern artificial intelligence through an international scientific panel and global policy dialogue. The Declaration on Future Generations, another milestone, establishes a commitment to providing more meaningful opportunities for young people to participate in decisions that shape their lives, especially at the global level.

The primary objective of the Pact is to promote a multilateral system that reflects today's realities and delivers for everyone, everywhere. It seeks to address critical areas including sustainable development and financing for development, international peace and security, science and technology innovation, youth and future generations, and transforming global governance. In terms of sustainable development, the Pact aims to strengthen cooperation between countries and intensify efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals of the 2030 Agenda.

Timeline for Implementation and Follow-up

The Pact for the Future outlines concrete follow-up mechanisms to ensure accountability and progress. These include a high-level review for the Global Digital Compact in 2027, a high-level plenary meeting in 2028 for the Declaration on Future Generations, and a comprehensive review of the entire Pact at a Heads of State and Government meeting at the beginning of the 83rd session of the General Assembly in 2028. Additionally, other global events taking place in the next few years, including the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development and upcoming UN Climate Change Conferences, are identified as opportunities to build on the agreements and advance actions contained in the Pact.

Implementation of the Pact begins immediately following its adoption, with national-level engagement, implementation, and accountability being essential to putting the agreements into action. A key priority is delivering transformative progress between now and 2030 by unlocking greater financing and fiscal space for developing countries while securing a more equitable international financial system.

Connection to the 1972 Stockholm and 1992 Rio Declarations

The Pact for the Future can be viewed as a continuation of international environmental governance that began with the 1972 Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment. The Stockholm Declaration, consisting of a preamble and 26 principles, represented the first global attempt to place environmental issues at the forefront of international concerns. This was followed 20 years later by the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development, which expanded to 27 principles.

The Rio Declaration built upon and reaffirmed the Stockholm Declaration, broadening the focus from the human environment to elaborate on the integration of environment and development. While the Stockholm Declaration highlighted the human rights dimension of environmental protection with statements like "Man has the fundamental right to freedom, equality and adequate conditions of life, in an environment of a quality that permits a life of dignity and well-being", the Rio Declaration positioned humans as "the centre of concerns for sustainable development".

A significant difference between the two declarations is that while the Stockholm Declaration primarily focused on environmental policy goals and objectives, the Rio Declaration reflected the accumulated environmental law-making and awareness that had developed over the intervening two decades. Both declarations have had substantial influence on international environmental law, and together they bracket what has been called the "modern era" of international environmental law.

Progress Made from 1972 to 2024

Since the 1972 Stockholm Conference, significant progress has been made in international environmental governance and sustainable development frameworks. The relationship between human rights and environmental protection has been considerably strengthened over these five decades. Regional treaties have been established that explicitly recognize environmental rights, such as the 1981 African Charter on Human and Peoples' Rights, which affirms "the right to a general satisfactory environment favourable to their development".

Important developments include the creation of judicial and quasi-judicial bodies that enforce environmental rights, such as the European Court of Human Rights, which has developed jurisprudence on human rights in environmental matters since the mid-1990s. The African Commission on Human and Peoples' Rights has also made landmark rulings linking human rights to the environment. Furthermore, procedural environmental rights—including access to information, public participation in decision-making, and access to justice—have been firmly established through agreements like the 1998 Aarhus Convention and the 2018 Escazú Agreement.

In terms of global frameworks, almost all multilateral environmental treaties adopted after the 1992 Rio Conference include provisions promoting public participation, engagement, and awareness—a sharp contrast to treaties before Rio. While progress has been made, challenges remain in implementation, particularly concerning inequality in resource use and the enforceability of environmental protections.

Current Status of the Sustainable Development Goals

The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted by all United Nations members in 2015 as part of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, with the aim of creating "peace and prosperity for people and the planet". However, current assessments indicate that progress toward achieving these goals by 2030 is seriously off track. As of 2024, only 15% of the SDG targets are on track to be achieved, while 49% show minimal or moderate progress, and 36% are stagnating or regressing.

The SDGs have faced significant challenges since their adoption. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating impact on progress, halting or reversing years of advancement in poverty reduction, health, and education. An additional 119 to 124 million people were pushed into extreme poverty in 2020 due to the pandemic. Other major challenges include climate change, biodiversity loss, and rising inequalities, all of which threaten overall progress.

Despite these challenges, there have been some notable achievements since 2015, including improvements in areas such as child mortality, access to electricity, and progress in combating certain diseases. Specific advances include a reduction in global suicide death rate by 36% between 2000 and 2019, an increase in children's participation in organized pre-primary learning from 65% in 2010 to 73% in 2019, and a 61% decrease in the annual number of civilian deaths globally between 2015 and 2020.

Financial Requirements and Gaps for SDG Achievement

One of the most significant challenges to achieving the SDGs is the enormous financial gap. The United Nations estimates that for Africa alone, considering the continent's population growth, yearly funding of $1.3 trillion would be needed to achieve the SDGs. The International Monetary Fund has also estimated that $50 billion may be needed just to cover the expenses of climate adaptation.

Overall cost estimates for providing clean water and sanitation for the entire global population have been as high as US$200 billion. In 2014, UNCTAD estimated the annual costs to achieving the UN Goals at US$2.5 trillion per year. A more recent cost estimate from 2020 stated that "In developing countries, the [financial] gap is estimated to be US$ 2.5 trillion per year pre-COVID-19 pandemic, which was projected to have risen to US$ 4.2 trillion in 2020 alone".

The Pact for the Future acknowledges these financial challenges and calls for a step-change in financing for the SDGs and closing the SDG financing gap through multiple mechanisms, including an SDG Stimulus, reaching official development assistance targets, increasing private sector investment, mobilizing domestic resources, establishing inclusive and effective international tax cooperation, and considering a global minimum level of taxation on high-net-worth individuals.

Comparison of Progress: 1972-2024 vs. SDGs by 2030

When comparing the progress made in environmental governance and sustainable development from 1972 to 2024 with the expectations for achieving the remaining SDG targets by 2030, a stark contrast emerges. The evolution of international environmental law and governance over the past 50 years has been a gradual process, characterized by incremental advances through successive international agreements, the development of legal frameworks, and the establishment of institutions.

The MDGs (2000-2015) that preceded the SDGs had mixed results, with significant progress in reducing extreme poverty and hunger, increasing primary school education rates, and reducing child mortality. However, gender inequality persisted, gaps existed between rich and poor communities, and environmental degradation undermined progress. The SDGs built upon these experiences, becoming more ambitious and comprehensive, encompassing a wider range of social, economic, and environmental targets.

Despite the breadth and ambition of the SDGs, current projections suggest that achieving all 17 goals by 2030 is unlikely. Some studies indicate that approximately 30% of countries might be able to achieve the SDGs by 2030, which highlights the unevenness of progress across different regions. The remaining 70% of countries face significant challenges in achieving these goals within the established timeframe, suggesting a concerning lack of progress compared to aspirations.

Realism of the 2030 Timeframe for SDGs

Considering the historical context of progress since 1972, the timeline for achieving the SDGs by 2030 appears increasingly unrealistic. Recent assessments suggest that most, if not all, of the goals are unlikely to be met by the 2030 deadline. Even before the COVID-19 pandemic, many goals, including those related to health and renewable energy, were not on track to be achieved by 2030.

The 2023 Sustainable Development Goals Report starkly observes: "The Sustainable Development Goals are disappearing in the rear-view mirror, as is the hope and rights of current and future generations. A fundamental shift is needed—in commitment, solidarity, financing and action—to put the world on a better path". This assessment underscores the significant gap between aspirations and reality in SDG implementation.

The political impact of the SDGs has been limited, and they have struggled to achieve transformative changes in policy and institutional structures. Funding remains a critical issue, with significant financial resources required worldwide to meet the goals. The current pace of progress, coupled with recent setbacks, suggests that a complete achievement of the SDGs by 2030 would require an unprecedented acceleration in implementation—a level of change that seems difficult to achieve based on the historical record of the past five decades.

The Role of the Pact for the Future in Accelerating SDG Achievement

The Pact for the Future recognizes the urgency of accelerating progress toward the SDGs. World leaders have committed to intensify efforts to implement the 2030 Agenda and the SDGs. The Pact specifically calls for member states to recommit to accelerating the implementation of the 2030 Agenda through urgent and scaled-up action, policies, and investments with the goal to end poverty and hunger and leave no one behind.

To achieve this acceleration, the Pact emphasizes several key strategies. It calls for a reform of the international financial architecture to better serve developing nations, ensuring they have a greater voice in global financial institutions. The Pact also emphasizes climate action, reaffirming the commitment to limit temperature rises to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. Additionally, it focuses on mobilizing financial and technical resources to help developing nations adapt to climate impacts and invest in renewable energy.

The Pact also addresses emerging security threats, particularly the weaponization of new technologies, and promotes bridging the global digital divide by ensuring universal internet access by 2030. By addressing these interconnected challenges, the Pact aims to create more favorable conditions for achieving the SDGs, though significant hurdles remain.

Conclusion: Balancing Ambition with Realism

The Pact for the Future represents an important step in renewing global commitments to sustainable development and addressing pressing challenges. However, when viewed against the backdrop of progress since 1972, the ambition of achieving the remaining SDG targets by 2030 faces significant obstacles. The gradual nature of progress in international environmental governance over the past five decades contrasts sharply with the accelerated timeline required to meet the SDGs.

While the foundations laid since the Stockholm and Rio Declarations provide a framework for modern sustainability efforts, substantive challenges relating to financing gaps, implementation capacity, political will, and global cooperation must be addressed to achieve meaningful results by 2030. The impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, ongoing conflicts, and climate change have further complicated this task.

The Pact for the Future acknowledges these challenges and proposes concrete actions to address them. However, achieving the transformative change needed to realize all SDGs by 2030 would require an unprecedented global effort that significantly exceeds the pace of progress witnessed over the past half-century. A more realistic approach might involve prioritizing certain goals and targets while extending the timeline for others, ensuring that progress continues beyond 2030.

In conclusion, while the Pact for the Future demonstrates a renewed commitment to multilateral cooperation and sustainable development, the historical context suggests that achieving all SDGs by 2030 remains a formidable challenge. Nevertheless, the urgency of action emphasized by both the Pact and the SDGs is essential to address pressing global challenges and create a more sustainable and equitable future for all.