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InterCeption

Russian Intervention in the 2016 Presidential Election: FBI Investigations, Outcomes, and Key Players

Introduction to Russian Interference

The Russian government conducted a multifaceted foreign electoral interference operation during the 2016 United States elections with the specific goals of sabotaging Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, boosting Donald Trump's presidential campaign, and increasing political and social discord in the United States. The operation was code-named Project Lakhta and, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, was directly ordered by Russian president Vladimir Putin. This interference became the core of what was known as the "Russiagate" scandal and prompted several high-profile investigations by U.S. intelligence and law enforcement agencies.

The Origins of FBI Investigations

The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) opened the Crossfire Hurricane investigation into Russian interference in July 2016. This investigation included a special focus on links between Trump associates and Russian officials and suspected coordination between the Trump campaign and the Russian government. The investigation was triggered by concerns about Russia's attempts to interfere in the U.S. election process. The dismissal of FBI Director James Comey by President Trump in May 2017 was partly attributed to Comey's ongoing investigation of Russian interference, which escalated the situation to a new level.

The Mueller Investigation

In May 2017, former FBI director Robert Mueller was appointed as special counsel to oversee the investigation into Russian interference. Mueller's investigation concluded that Russian interference was "sweeping and systematic" and that it violated U.S. criminal law. The probe resulted in the indictment of twenty-six Russian citizens and three Russian organizations. Additionally, the investigation led to indictments and convictions of Trump campaign officials and associated Americans, though on charges unrelated to coordination with Russia.

Methods of Russian Interference

Social Media and Internet Trolls

According to the Mueller Report, one of the primary methods of Russian interference involved the Internet Research Agency (IRA), a Kremlin-linked troll farm. The IRA conducted "a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton" while also seeking to "provoke and amplify political and social discord in the United States". By February 2016, internal IRA documents revealed an order to support the candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, while directing members to "use any opportunity to criticize" Hillary Clinton and other candidates.

The IRA created thousands of social media accounts that purported to be Americans supporting radical political groups. These fake accounts reached millions of social media users between 2013 and 2017. Instagram was the most widely used platform by the IRA, largely remaining out of public scrutiny until late 2018. The IRA's Twitter accounts included @TEN_GOP (claiming to be related to the Tennessee Republican Party), @jenn_abrams, and @Pamela_Moore13, with the latter two claiming to be Trump supporters and having approximately 70,000 followers each.

Cyberattacks on Democrats

The second method of Russian interference involved the Russian intelligence service, the GRU, hacking into email accounts owned by volunteers and employees of the Clinton presidential campaign, including campaign chairman John Podesta. The GRU also hacked into "the computer networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC)". Starting in March 2016, the GRU sent "spearphishing" emails targeting more than 300 individuals affiliated with the Democratic Party or the Clinton campaign.

The hackers obtained tens of thousands of emails and attachments and deleted computer logs and files to obscure evidence of their activities. These stolen materials were released in stages during the three months leading up to the 2016 election. The timing of these releases appeared strategic – the first tranche of 19,000 emails and 8,000 attachments was released on July 22, 2016, just three days before the Democratic National Convention. A second tranche was released on October 7, shortly after the Obama Administration officially accused Russia of interfering in the election and just 29 minutes after The Washington Post published the Access Hollywood tape featuring Trump.

Key Organizations Involved

Internet Research Agency (IRA)

The Internet Research Agency, based in Saint Petersburg, Russia, and described as a troll farm, was a key player in the Russian interference campaign. The organization created fraudulent identities on social media, using generic names or mimicking existing domestic political, grassroots, and community groups, as well as candidates themselves. The IRA targeted both sides of the ideological spectrum to sow division, a strategy unique to Russian election campaigns. Their influence campaigns often focused on race, American nationalism/patriotism, immigration, gun control, and LGBT issues.

Russian Military Intelligence (GRU)

The GRU (Russian military intelligence) was responsible for the hacking operations against Democratic targets. In July 2018, twelve Russian GRU intelligence officials were indicted for conspiring to interfere in the 2016 elections. These individuals were charged with hacking into computers of the Clinton campaign, the Democratic National Committee, and state election boards. The stolen files were released "in stages," a tactic that wreaked "havoc on the Democratic Party throughout much of the election season".

DCLeaks and Guccifer 2.0

The stolen emails and documents were distributed through platforms created by the hackers – a website called DCLeaks and a persona called Guccifer 2.0, who claimed to be a lone hacker. The Russians registered the domain dcleaks.com, using Bitcoin to pay for the domain and hosting.

WikiLeaks

WikiLeaks also played a significant role in disseminating the hacked materials. On October 7, 2016, WikiLeaks began releasing Podesta's emails, having announced on Twitter that it possessed 50,000 of his emails. WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange denied that the Russian government was the source of the material, but an anonymous CIA official stated that Russian officials transferred the hacked emails to WikiLeaks using "a circuitous route" from Russia's military intelligence services to WikiLeaks via third parties.

Targeting Specific Demographics

The IRA's operations specifically targeted certain demographics to influence the election. No group received as much attention as Black Americans, whose voter turnout has historically been crucial to the election of Democrats. The IRA created Facebook pages targeting African Americans that amassed a total of 1.2 million individual followers. The Facebook page for the Russian "Blacktivist" garnered more hits than the legitimate Black Lives Matter's Facebook page.

The IRA also created at least 25 social media pages drawing 1.4 million followers to target the American political right and promote the Trump candidacy. They added Blue Lives Matter material to social media platforms after the Black Lives Matter movement gained prominence in America. Russian trolls also created memes that exploited typical conservative social attitudes about people of color, Muslims, and immigrants to overcome Trump's potentially poor reputation among evangelicals and veterans.

FBI Investigation and Key Individuals

The FBI opened its investigation into Russian interference on July 31, 2016. The investigation was sparked in part by information received about a May 2016 meeting between Trump campaign foreign policy advisor George Papadopoulos and Alexander Downer in a London wine bar, where Papadopoulos disclosed his knowledge of a large trove of Hillary Clinton emails that could potentially damage her campaign. Papadopoulos had learned about this on March 14, 2016, from Joseph Mifsud, who told him the Russians had "dirt" on Clinton in the form of thousands of stolen emails.

Several individuals connected to Russia contacted various Trump campaign associates, offering business opportunities to the Trump Organization and promising damaging information on Clinton. Key figures in the investigation included:

Paul Manafort: Trump's campaign chairman who was indicted under seal in October 2017 for allegedly laundering more than $18 million. He was also charged with being an unregistered agent of the Ukrainian government and making false statements.

Rick Gates: Manafort's associate who was also indicted and later pleaded guilty to two counts: making a false statement and conspiring against the United States.

George Papadopoulos: A foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign who pleaded guilty to making false statements to the FBI about his communications with an unnamed overseas professor who told him that Russia had thousands of Clinton's emails.

Michael Flynn: Trump's former National Security Advisor who pleaded guilty to one felony count of making false statements to the FBI about conversations he had with Russian ambassador Sergey Kislyak in December 2016. Flynn agreed to cooperate with Mueller's investigation as part of his plea agreement.

Roger Stone: A former adviser to President Trump who was arrested by the FBI as part of Mueller's investigation. Stone was accused of lying to Congress about his involvement in providing the Trump campaign with information about emails WikiLeaks stole from Democrats in 2016.

Outcomes of the Investigations

The 448-page Mueller Report, released in April 2019, examined numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russian officials but concluded that there was insufficient evidence to bring any conspiracy or coordination charges against Trump or his associates. While the report established that the Russian government interfered in the 2016 election in a "sweeping and systematic fashion" and that the Trump campaign "expected it would benefit electorally" from these efforts, it did not find evidence of a criminal conspiracy.

The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee conducted its own investigation, releasing a five-volume report totaling 1,313 pages between 2019 and 2020. The committee concluded that the January 2017 intelligence community assessment alleging Russian interference was "coherent and well-constructed". The final volume, released in August 2020, found that the Russian government had engaged in an "extensive campaign" to sabotage the election in favor of Trump, which included assistance from some of Trump's own advisers.

Indictments and Legal Consequences

Mueller's investigation resulted in significant legal actions. In February 2018, Mueller announced indictments against 13 Russian nationals and the Russia-based Internet Research Agency for allegedly interfering in the 2016 presidential election. The group was charged with "conspiracy to defraud the United States, conspiracy to commit wire fraud and bank fraud and aggravated identity theft".

In July 2018, Mueller indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officials for hacking the Democratic National Committee. The indictment alleged that Russian operatives hacked the DNC's computers with the goal of sabotaging the presidential election.

Several Trump associates faced legal consequences as a result of the investigation. Manafort was sentenced to 47 months in federal prison in March 2019 for tax fraud, bank fraud, and failure to disclose a foreign bank account. In September 2018, Manafort had also pleaded guilty to one count of conspiracy against the United States and one count of conspiracy to obstruct justice by witness tampering, agreeing to cooperate with Mueller's investigation.

Flynn initially pleaded guilty and agreed to cooperate with the investigation, but later withdrew his guilty plea. The Department of Justice eventually moved to dismiss Flynn's case in May 2020, and Flynn received a pardon from President Trump in November 2020.

Intrusions into State Election Systems

The Russian interference extended beyond targeting campaigns to attempting to penetrate state election systems. A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016. The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought to have been "a trial run to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses" in state election systems.

During the summer and fall of 2016, Russian hackers intruded into voter databases and software systems in 39 different states. This alarmed Obama administration officials to the point that they took the unprecedented step of contacting Moscow directly via the Moscow–Washington hotline and warning that the attacks risked setting off a broader conflict.

Financial Connections and Money Flows

By January 2017, a multi-agency investigation was underway looking into how the Russian government may have secretly financed efforts to help Trump win the election. By January 2018, the FBI was investigating the possible funneling of illegal money by Aleksandr Torshin, a deputy governor of the Central Bank of Russia, through the National Rifle Association of America (NRA). The NRA reported spending $30 million to support the 2016 Trump campaign, three times what it spent on Mitt Romney in 2012.

Maria Butina, a Russian anti-gun control activist who served as a special assistant to Torshin, came to the U.S. on a student visa and claimed both before and after the election that she was part of the Trump campaign's communications with Russia. Butina was arrested by the FBI and charged with conspiring to act as an unregistered Russian agent who had attempted to create a backchannel of communications between American Republicans/conservatives and Russian officials.

Intelligence Community Assessment

In January 2017, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released a declassified report representing the work of the FBI, CIA, and NSA. The report concluded that "President Vladimir Putin ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election". The intelligence community was confident that Russia's goals were to "undermine public faith in the U.S. democratic process, denigrate Secretary Clinton, and harm her electability and potential presidency". The report also assessed that "Putin and the Russian Government developed a clear preference for president-elect Trump".

Trump's Response to the Investigations

Throughout the investigations, Donald Trump consistently denied any cooperation between his campaign and Russia. When U.S. intelligence officials publicly accused Putin of being directly involved in the interference operation in December 2016, Trump dismissed the allegations. In an interview released on December 11, 2016, Trump challenged reports that Russia had interfered with the presidential election to his benefit, calling it "just another excuse" and stating, "I don't believe it".

On July 27, 2016, Trump publicly called on Russia to find and release Hillary Clinton's deleted emails from her private server. He stated, "Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing, I think you will probably be rewarded mightily by our press". This comment was widely condemned, and Trump later claimed he had been speaking sarcastically. Notably, the July 2018 federal indictment of Russian GRU agents revealed that the first attempt by Russian hackers to infiltrate Clinton's servers occurred on the same day Trump made this statement.

Conclusion

The Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election represents an unprecedented foreign effort to influence American democratic processes. The investigations led by the FBI and Special Counsel Robert Mueller established that the Russian government conducted a sophisticated, multifaceted campaign that included social media disinformation, hacking operations, and strategic release of stolen information. While the investigations did not establish a criminal conspiracy between the Trump campaign and Russian operatives, they documented numerous contacts between campaign associates and Russian officials and revealed a willingness by the campaign to benefit from Russian interference activities. The outcomes of these investigations have had lasting implications for U.S. politics, election security, and U.S.-Russia relations, highlighting vulnerabilities in democratic systems that continue to be addressed today.